MEDIA CONTACT: Al Vanderklipp, Sightline Institute, al@sightline.org
FULL ARTICLE: Idaho Has a Spoiler Problem
BOISE, ID – Because the Republican Party dominates most general elections in Idaho, competitive elections play out mainly within Republican primaries. Though most winners in Idaho elections command a majority of votes, plurality winners (who have more votes than other candidates but less than 50 percent) are not uncommon.
According to new analysis by the nonpartisan, regional think tank Sightline Institute, 11 percent of Republican primaries for statewide executive offices such as governor and attorney general produced a primary winner who earned only a plurality of votes from 2012 to 2022. In other words, more voters selected non-winning candidates than cast ballots for the winner.
- Plurality winners have emerged in several consequential and high-profile races, including then-Lieutenant Governor Brad Little’s 37 percent win in the 2018 gubernatorial primary and Secretary of State Phil McGrane’s 43 percent victory in a three-way 2022 race.
- Closed primaries contribute to Idaho’s plurality winner problem by attracting low turnout and skewing toward the preferences of party diehards.
- Candidates can campaign on inflammatory ideas or personal attacks to stand out in a crowded primary field, emphasizing intraparty divisions and splitting the electorate.
- Although independent and minority party voters pay for primary elections with their tax dollars, closed primaries exclude them from participating.
- Though the Republican Party dominates general elections in Idaho, a strong independent candidate could split the statewide vote, electing someone who fails to represent the values of the most voters.
Other states, including Alaska, Georgia, Maine, and Mississippi, have implemented systems that guarantee majority-winner elections. A measure on November’s ballot would do the same in Idaho.
“The principle of majority rule is a core tenet of democracy. But Idaho’s closed partisan primaries don’t always honor that principle,” said Al Vanderklipp, co-author of the article and Senior Research Associate with the Sightline Institute’s Democracy program. “Majority vote requirements and open primaries are proven methods for elections to better honor the will of the people.”
Vanderklipp is available for comment on the history of plurality winners in Idaho elections.
Read the full analysis: Idaho Has a Spoiler Problem
Related:
- Montana’s Plurality Problem | Political gamesmanship and the spoiler effect prevent majority winners in some of the Treasure State’s most impactful elections.
- Nonpartisan open primaries let Alaskans choose values over party | More than half of voters in the 2022 midterm primaries split their tickets between candidates from across the political spectrum.
- Spoiler alert! Majority winners are no guarantee | Oregon’s past statewide and federal elections are full of spoiler candidates and non-majority winners.
- Open primaries and ranked choice voting strengthened moderate Republicans in Alaska’s legislature | Fewer hardliners won office, leading to an overwhelmingly bipartisan Senate majority, a hard-fought win on education funding, and the ability to neutralize culture warriors.
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Al Vanderklipp is a Senior Research Associate with Sightline Institute’s Democracy program, where he focuses on election systems in the Northern Rockies.
Sightline Institute is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank providing leading original analysis of democracy, forests, energy, and housing policy in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, British Columbia, and beyond.
