MEDIA CONTACT: Al Vanderklipp, Sightline Institute, al@sightline.org
FULL ARTICLE: Montana’s Plurality Problem
BOZEMAN, MT – Though most winners in Montana elections command a majority of votes, plurality winners (who have more votes than other candidates but less than 50 percent) have emerged in numerous high-impact elections.
According to new analysis by the nonpartisan, regional think tank Sightline Institute, 26 percent of congressional elections and 9 percent of statewide elections from 2012 to 2022 ended without a majority winner. In other words, more voters selected non-winning candidates than cast ballots for the individual ultimately elected—a phenomenon most common in high-profile, high-impact statewide and congressional races, and tied to major-party jockeying to “spoil” the opposing party’s chances with minor-party candidates.
- In 46 primary and general election contests from 2012 to 2022, state and federal officeholders in Montana won only plurality support.
- Notable among the plurality-winner contests were Democratic US Senator Jon Tester’s general election in 2012 and Republican US Representative Ryan Zinke’s bid for Montana’s First Congressional District in 2022. In both instances, a majority of voters split their vote between the nominee of the opposite major party and the Libertarian candidate.
- Nominees who command only pluralities in their party primaries commonly perform worse in the general election than do candidates who win their primaries with majority support.
- Ballot measures CI-126 and CI-127 on Montana’s ballot this November would enact policies to address these issues by opening the primaries and enacting a majority vote requirement, respectively.
“The principle of majority rule is a core tenet of democracy. But elections in Montana don’t always honor that principle,” said Al Vanderklipp, co-author of the article and Senior Research Associate with the Sightline Institute’s Democracy program. “Majority vote requirements and open primaries are proven methods for elections to better honor the will of the people.”
Vanderklipp is available for comment on the history of plurality winners in Montana elections.
Read the full analysis: Montana’s Plurality Problem
Related:
- Nonpartisan open primaries let Alaskans choose values over party | More than half of voters in the 2022 midterm primaries split their tickets between candidates from across the political spectrum.
- Spoiler alert! Majority winners are no guarantee | Oregon’s past statewide and federal elections are full of spoiler candidates and non-majority winners.
- Open primaries and ranked choice voting strengthened moderate republicans in Alaska’s legislature | Fewer hardliners won office, leading to an overwhelmingly bipartisan Senate majority, a hard-fought win on education funding, and the ability to neutralize culture warriors.
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Al Vanderklipp is a Senior Research Associate with Sightline Institute’s Democracy program, where he focuses on election systems in the Northern Rockies.
Sightline Institute is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank providing leading original analysis of democracy, forests, energy, and housing policy in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, British Columbia, and beyond.
