BOISE, ID – About 30 percent of Idaho voters saw room for improvement in the state’s pick-one, closed primary voting system. But a majority chose to stick with the status quo, rejecting Proposition 1, which would have created an all-candidate, all-voter primary and instituted ranked choice voting for general elections.
Under the current system, primaries exclude tax-paying citizens, candidates have incentives to campaign on personal attacks and culture war issues rather than policy, and the state is tiptoeing around a plurality winner pitfall. Though most winners in Idaho elections command a majority of votes, plurality winners (who have more votes than other candidates but less than 50 percent) are not uncommon in primary elections.
According to analysis by the nonpartisan, regional think tank Sightline Institute, 11 percent of Republican primaries for statewide executive offices such as governor and attorney general produced a primary winner who earned only a plurality of votes from 2012 to 2022. In other words, more voters selected non-winning candidates than cast ballots for the winner.
Closed primaries contribute to Idaho’s plurality winner problem by attracting low turnout and skewing toward the preferences of party diehards. Candidates can campaign on inflammatory ideas or personal attacks to stand out in a crowded primary field, emphasizing intraparty divisions and splitting the electorate. Although independent and minority party voters pay for primary elections with their tax dollars, closed primaries exclude them from participating.
Per Sightline’s free use policy, all research, graphics, and other resources are available to republish.
Democracy researcher Al Vanderklipp is available for comment on Sightline’s findings.
Contact: Al Vanderklipp, Sightline Institute, al@sightline.org
Analysis:
- Almost One in Three Idahoans Wanted Open Primaries and Instant Runoff Elections
- Idaho Has a Spoiler Problem
Related:
- Montana’s Plurality Problem
- Nonpartisan open primaries let Alaskans choose values over party
- Open primaries and ranked choice voting strengthened moderate Republicans in Alaska’s legislature
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Al Vanderklipp is a Senior Research Associate with Sightline Institute’s Democracy program, where he focuses on election systems in the Northern Rockies.
Sightline Institute is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank providing leading original analysis of democracy, forests, energy, and housing policy in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, British Columbia, and beyond.
