Years ago, I heard from an economist friend about research showing that urban rents rose with oil prices in the 1970s, while suburban ones fell. Ultimately, land values reflect the shifts in the values of many things. So rising fuel prices would be expected to have the effect of making fuel-guzzling neighborhoods less desirable and fuel-sipping ones more desirable. We’re starting to see that pattern now.
Today’s top news story on Sightline Daily’s news page describes the way the subprime mortgage crisis is slamming suburban real estate. A similar story ran earlier in the Atlantic Monthly, as Kristin pointed out in today’s editor’s note.
Meanwhile, in Seattle at least, property values are holding strongest in the ring of walkable neighborhoods circling downtown, as the Seattle PI reports.
Reporter Aubrey Cohen notes a shift among buyers toward walkable neighborhoods:
“Many prospective buyers say they want “walking neighborhoods,” [real estate agent Stacey] Brower said. “They want to be able to get up on Saturday morning and walk to a coffee shop and get a paper, or walk to a restaurant on Friday night.”
“[Realtor Bob] Melvey also has noticed an increasing interest in walkability over the past five years, he said. “It’s really wanting to be walking distance to a sense of community.”
Paul Birkeland
Flash forward another 15 years, Alan, and a rebound of sorts back out of the cities is occurring. Gasoline prices and emissions caps have essentially obviated the transport of food, especially fresh foods, from outside the region. Gas rationing is in effect. National policy to give priority access to the remaining oil supplies for what the authorities see as the more pressing national needs (the military, chemical fertilizers, strategic plastics, etc.) is making progress in Congress. The need to grow food closer to the populace is being recognized, and transporting food over long distances is becoming less and less justifiable.This is perhaps a bit bleak, but not out of the question. It already happened in Cuba when the Soviet Union collapsed and subsidized oil supplies were terminated. And cities don’t fare too well under these conditions. Food first becomes more expensive. Then it becomes less diverse as well. And finally scarcer. Without more immediate access to farms and arable land in general, the resurrection of our cities is aborted, and a relapse into poverty and crime takes hold. But the size and density of our cities precludes the ability of the circumferential farmlands to feed everyone, so many are left with little choice – flee the city for smaller towns, or stay behind amidst the poverty, violence and scarcity.The cities that survive the best are those where “fingers” of arable land extend into the urban landscape from all sides, and where “inclusions” of arable land are brought into production. This is not hard to do. But we are not doing it.If the cities are about to undergo a resurgence, and the suburbs a decline, we should actively shape policy and programs to anticipate the end of cheap oil and the consequent impact on our food network. There are many ways to do this. But first we need to start the conversation.