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Back in 2008, when gas prices were peaking and employment hadn’t yet collapsed, transit ridership was positively soaring. In a single year, transit ridership rose 5 percent across the US and 3 percent across Canada. In the Northwest, Seattle ridership rose 8 percent (see p. 17 of the linked pdf), and Portland and Vancouver also notched ridership gains.
But since then, a slowing economy and falling gas prices have pulled transit numbers back to earth. In Portland, for example, about 9 percent fewer riders boarded the bus in mid-2010 than in mid-2008, according to the preliminary monthly numbers.
You can’t blame transit agencies for these trends—they’re caught in the same macroeconomic tides as everyone else. In fact, a faltering economy can hit bus ridership with a double whammy: fewer riders going to work and stores, coupled with declines in traffic congestion that lure some bus riders back into their cars.
But there’s at least one transit system that’s bucking the trends: Portland’s streetcar. The most recent numbers show that the streetcar notched its highest-ever spring ridership in 2010, while total streetcar ridership in the first half of the year is up by 11 percent over the same period in 2008. And as far as I can tell, the streetcar achieved these ridership gains with essentially no increase in service hours.
I truly have no idea what’s fueled the streetcar’s gravity-defying ridership stats. Neither, apparently, do the folks at the Portland Streetcar. In their view, nothing significant has changed in or near the streetcar route that would explain the increase. The areas serviced by the streetcar were fully developed by 2008; there haven’t been major new employers on the route; the streetcar hasn’t increased its service; and nearby transit has basically remained the same. You can’t attribute the gains to effective marketing, since the streetcar doesn’t even have a marketing budget. It’s a bit of a mystery—but it’s a good sort of mystery to have.
Of course, it’s possible to argue that you’re seeing similar results with Portland’s other major train transit service, MAX. As the chart to the right shows, light rail ridership has risen since mid-2008, even as bus ridership fell. But these statistics are clouded by the MAX Green Line, which opened just last fall; and new service gave rail ridership a boost, possibly at the expense of buses. But the streetcar got a ridership boost even without any new service.
Regardless of the reasons behind Portland’s streetcar success, other cities seem to be taking notice, and—even in this economy—considering streetcars of their own. Which is good news for PDX, since the nation’s only modern streetcar manufacturer is located just outside Portland. Lucky for them, the ridership growth of Portland’s streetcar makes for good advertising.
[Streetcar photo courtesy of Flickr user drburtoni, distributed under a Creative Commons license.]
Daniel Henderson
Hi Clark.I believe that this is because downtown Portland’s Fareless Square became the Free Rail Zone in January 2010, and buses were no longer free:http://trimet.org/news/farelesschange.htmThis would have driven downtown riders to the MAX light rail and the streetcar. You can see a slight decline in bus traffic around March 2010 where there was a slight increase the year before, and vice versa in the Max trend line.
Clark Williams-Derry
Daniel–That sounds like a totally reasonable explanation! It certainly explains why the numbers have grown since last year. Even though ridership in 2010 looks strong, 2009 was a little softer than 2008.And by the way—I just got a latest figures for summer 2010, and ridership rose yet again, narrowly beating out summer 2008. But as you point out, the change in the ride-free policy likely gave ridership a boost.
Roger DuPuis
Clark,Thank you for this useful and newsworthy analysis. I used it as a jumping off point for some additional thoughts and comment on my own streetcar and light rail blog, here: http://tramsstophere.wordpress.com/2010/09/18/portland-streetcar-ridership-up/Best,Roger DuPuis.
Wells
Always delighted to bust anyone’s bubble, this Portlander rides MAX and the streetcar often and must insist that “Rail Free Zone” isn’t a plausible reason for more people riding the streetcar. MAX certainly acquired riders from the no longer free buses on the transit mall, but there’s some other reason for more people riding streetcars on 10th & 11th – probably having more to do with their reliability, ride comfort and popular development along the line.